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Putting Cyber Threats Into Perspective

As society uses more digital technologies we are increasingly also faced with its problems.

Most of us will have some horror stories to tell about using computers, smartphones, and the internet. But this hasn’t stopped us from using the technology more and more. I believe that most people would say that their lives would be worse without technology—in developed countries but equally in the developing world, where mobile phones and the internet have revolutionised the lives of hundreds of millions of individual people, resulting in great personal benefits involving, for example, employment, business, education (information) and healthcare.

And, while there are certainly also downsides, with hacks, identity theft, populism, cyberbullying, cybercrime and so on, the positives of ICT still far outweigh the negatives. Yet in recent years cybersecurity has achieved political importance that greatly exceeds its actual threat.

Despite the various and ongoing cyber threats the world seems to function quite well; and, as my colleague Andrew Odlyzko in his recent paper Cyber security is not (very) important argues, there have been many other security threats that are having a far greater impact on us than all the cyber threats combined. Think of the recent tsunamis, earthquakes, floods, epidemics, financial collapse (2008), 9/11 and so on. What about the massive damage done by guns in America or the hundreds of thousands of car casualties around the world every year? We seem to treat that as acceptable collateral damage.

In many of these cases, there is little political will to address the underlying issues like climate change, inequality and oligarchy, environmental degradation, gun control and so on.

Interestingly, many of those disasters do have some predictability and, if we wanted to, we could do much more about them. But that would require far more political attention around those more serious issues, and most politicians shy away from this. Cybersecurity seems to be an easier target.

If we look at history, we see that the collapse of societies has far more to do with those environmental issues than with technology. That is not to say that we should ignore cybersecurity. Of course not. But looking back on the last few decades cybersecurity has followed the same growth patterns as technology, and there is no reason to believe that this is going to change. We seem to be able to manage the cyber threats in the same way we can deal with other social problems such as crimes like theft and robbery, and so there is no overwhelming need to over-emphasise cyber threats.

As Andrew puts it, with all other social imperfections, we will never be able to get absolute cybersecurity. And, yes, there will be technological disasters, but it is unlikely that they will ever be on the scale of all the other disasters that humanity is facing.

So let’s put this into perspective; and I would argue let’s concentrate on how to address those far more dangerous developments, such as climate change, and how to look at ways ICT technology can assist humanity in finding solutions for this.

Amazingly it is here that government policies are moving backward, with relatively fewer funds being made available for innovation, research and development, education, e-health and so on.

There is also an important psychological element in cybercrime. Cyber breaches are widely reported but we must realise that vote rigging, gerrymandering and vote stacking, carried out in far more traditional ways, have a much greater impact on election outcomes than the influence of cybercrime.

Another example here is that, while many financial databases have been hacked and millions of credit cards have been captured, relatively little damage has been done, as banks have sophisticated ICT systems in place that can detect fraudulent transactions. Yet the financial damage of greedy banks nearly brought economies down in 2008.

Nevertheless, my greatest worry is still the Big Brother effect of cybersurveillance. It has the potential to further undermine our already weakening democratic structures. This has nothing to do with cybersecurity—in fact, cybersecurity can’t be used to solve this problem. And, despite the fact that the issue is now being far more seriously investigated by law-makers and regulators, especially in Europe and Australia, the major issue continues to be the lack of political will to address these issues.

The ICT world with all its ‘goods and bads’ reflects our messy society and it is that same society that has led us to where we are now. And in many cases, our progress has been based on muddling on, with the occasional starburst.

While there are certainly many worrying signs in society today it remains our responsibility not to charge blindly in the same direction as some of our forebears did, which led to the collapse of many previous civilisations. We are now in a far better position to understand what causes those collapses and we are capable of innovation and diversifying to avoid disaster. And we—the people in the ICT industry—are in the privileged position of being able to assist societies by creating the right tools to further prosperity for all.

By Paul Budde, Managing Director of Paul Budde Communication

Paul is also a contributor of the Paul Budde Communication blog located here.

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Well said Simon Leinen  –  Mar 15, 2019 6:37 AM

With all well-deserved respect to the people working hard to keep cybersecurity issues in check, it’s good to put things into perspective. And also to pause and think whether there could be such a thing as “too much (effort towards) cybersecurity”, because there are costs; the opportunity costs you mentioned, as well as possible negative externalities—even with the best intentions it’s often hard (or worse) to avoid those.

Thanks for the pointer to Andrew Odlyzko’s working paper (http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/cyberinsecurity.pdf - had to fight the search engine’s opinions a little to get there from just the title you quoted :-). I’m sure it’s worth the time of anyone interested in the larger picture.

Yes, but the Internet is not off the hook Larry Press  –  Mar 19, 2019 2:32 PM

I agree with your point on cybersecurity, but the Internet’s filter-bubble/fake news problem contributes to public opinion on the serious issues you mention—climate change, inequality and oligarchy, environmental degradation, gun control and so on. The Internet is also a useful tool for another problem you mention, gerrymandering: http://www.circleid.com/posts/20180114_using_gerrymandering_technology_to_fight_gerrymandering/

regulations Paul Budde  –  Mar 20, 2019 3:28 AM

Hi Larry, I totally agree and for that purpose I suggest that we unfortunately will have to resort to regulations. When I flagged this some 5 years to Google and others I mentioned that unless they come up with self regulation governments - under pressure of their constituency - will have to do that for them. In relation to privacy I suggested 'permission based' in other words the user 'owns' its personal data and can make this available or not based on their relationship with content and service providers.

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