The proposals by the European and Arab telcos that are being considered at the World Conference on International Telecommunications (WCIT) conference in Dubai later this year are most certainly facing defeat. This is not because the USA believes that the international telecommunications regulations (ITR) cannot be discussed by the ITU. America has a rather strange set of national regulations in which they have combined internet infrastructure and content -- and as such they claim that this no longer has anything to do with telecommunications.
In the run up to the WCIT negotiations in December, the most talked about proposed change to the ITRs (International Telecommunications Regulations) is the ETNO proposal... Much of the discussion has focused on how this would deter innovation, hamper start-ups and make Internet access much more expensive. Overlooked thus far are the unintended consequences of how this proposal will affect the Content Distribution Network (CDN) industry while simultaneously making cybercrime much easier.
Since the inception of ITU precursors in 1850, its various bodies have treated the subject of telecommunication network security as both an obligation of signatories to the treaty instruments as well as an ongoing collaborative activity. However, what it actually did in those activities was constrained by its jurisdiction and participant competency -- which encompassed international public telecommunication services provided primarily by designated government agency service providers known as PTTs.
The traditional network operators see OTT services as a threat, and the companies offering them are perceived to be getting a free lunch over their networks - they are calling for international regulation. In particular, the European telcos (united in ETNO) have been claiming that this undermines their investment in infrastructure and they want to use the WCIT conference in Dubai later this year to lobby for regulatory changes that would see certain levies being levied - something that is strenuously opposed by, among others, the USA and the APAC countries.
One of the reasons telecommunications has been so successful for more than 160 years is that it adopted a strategy that resulted in a seamless network all around the world. You can pick up a phone anywhere in the world and, with little or no instruction, make a call to anybody else in the world without worrying what phones and technology they are using on the other end of the line... But during that process the nature of the network operators changed.
The enormous growth in mobile usage, doubling each year, is set to continue for several years in a row. According to Ericsson, by 2020 mobile operators will need to provide one thousand times the capacity that was required in 2010. Our assessment at BuddeComm is that the mobile industry has already fallen behind in delivering the capacity needed today, let alone coping with the enormous growth ahead; and that this situation will deteriorate before it improves.
The fixed broadband network is the infrastructure needed to meet the needs, both economic and societal, of developed markets. While some people in some developed markets have abandoned their fixed telephone connection in favour of all-mobile solutions, the majority (90% plus) still have both a fixed and a mobile connection... And so wireless broadband and FttH will develop, in a complementary and harmonious way. There are several reasons for this.
The Internet has been growing at 115% per year, more than doubling annually, for thirty years. Today, over two billion people are connected to the Internet. The openness of the Internet has been the main catalyst for many social and economic advances. It has enabled a level of human communication and interconnection unprecedented in human history, as demonstrated by the staggering global popularity of social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. It has also spurred new levels of innovation, fueling significant economic activity.
The current internet versus telcos debate that is going to be played out at the WCIT conference in Dubai later this year is still following the old confrontational pattern. The telco industry, for all the right reasons, started off as a monopolistic one. With the limited technology and knowledge of that time this system has been able to deliver telephone networks to all the countries in the world, and the industry can be proud of that achievement... However technology and knowledge have progressed...
The awkwardly named International Telecommunication Union Telecommunication Standardization Sector (ITU-T) by any measure is a highly unusual body. It is the only global intergovernmental organization where Nation States produce detailed technical standards for telecommunications. Even more amazing is that it produces these standards for a field that is so dynamic and globally competitive as telecommunications. What is not well known is that the ITU-T was once a private standards body...