It’s always difficult for ISPs to fully understand how economic changes might affect them. Folks in the industry see the usual unemployment and inflation statistics, but they don’t really tell much about the future of broadband adoption. I’m not an economist, and this blog is not a prediction, but in the last few weeks I’ve heard a number of unrelated economic statistics that, taken together, I find troublesome.

• MVPDs like Hulu, Sling TV, and Fubo are all reporting a significant loss of subscriptions. At the same time, free ad-supported video services like Pluto TV and Tubi are seeing significant customer growth. The press that covers these companies believes that subscription losses are mostly due to households cutting back on spending.
• A Washington Post article reported that the number of households being cut off for nonpayment of electric and gas utility bills is climbing.
• The delinquency rate for mortgages has been increasing. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the national rate was 4.26%, up 28 basis points from a year earlier.
• Auto loan delinquencies are at the highest level in thirty years, and in early 2026, 6.9% of loans were 60 days overdue. More than 3 million cars were repossessed in 2025, a huge increase over prior years.
• The U.S. consumer sentiment survey taken in April 2026 showed an historically low level of consumer confidence. This survey has been conducted monthly for the last 74 years by the University of Michigan. 22% of the respondents to the April survey reported deteriorating personal finances.
• It seems like I’m seeing a new announcement almost daily from companies that are laying off thousands of employees or shutting down outlets or factories. Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle all recently announced huge layoffs. While there are always announcements of this sort, even in a robust economy, I can’t remember the last time I saw this volume of announcements.

None of this sounds like good news for ISPs. There has always been a general consensus in the industry that broadband is somewhat recession-proof. But is it really? The question of whether broadband is recession-proof is really asking if people will willingly give up the many things that they do online. Is there a point in people’s lives where broadband becomes a necessity that they will fight to keep when times get tough?

We already have strong evidence that broadband is related to household income. A recent Pew Survey showed that most households have smartphones. It also showed a strong correlation between household income and broadband adoption. The survey showed that 14% of homes with household incomes under $30,000 lack home broadband, while only 4% of homes with household incomes over $100,000 lack it. This leads to the fairly obvious conclusion that households will give up a broadband connection in favor of a smartphone subscription if money gets really tight.

Another thing to consider is that even if broadband is recession-proof, it doesn’t mean that people will continue to pay high prices for broadband. Consider the FWA cellular broadband sales from AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon. The three carriers have consistently been adding around one million new subscribers each quarter. The main attraction of FWA is broadband priced between $20 and $30 per month for customers who bundle broadband with a cellular plan.

Of course, a recession is not inevitable and may not happen this year or next. But the statistics cited at the beginning of this blog tell the story that a lot of homes are in financial distress, even if the overall economy might not be in a recession. It’s possible that the traditional paradigms of what defines a recession no longer apply. Perhaps we’re seeing the economy collapse for the bottom earners in a way we haven’t seen before.

I suspect most of the people who read this blog think that broadband is essential for daily life. But the big question that will have to be answered is how many customers find home broadband to be indispensable. It’s easy for those of us live and breathe broadband to suppose that people think of broadband as a necessity—but is that really true for homes that can’t afford electricity or who can’t make car or mortgage payments?