The European country code top-level domain (ccTLD) market is at a crossroads, facing a confluence of challenges that could reshape its trajectory in the coming years. From slowing growth and rising renewal prices to shifting user behaviour driven by AI, the market is undergoing profound changes. These trends suggest a potential decline in domain volumes and a shift in how domains are valued and used. Here’s a closer look at the factors contributing to this “perfect storm” and what it means for the future of European ccTLDs.

1. Slowing Growth and Rising Deletions – Growth in domain registrations under European ccTLDs has hit record lows in recent years. A significant driver of this slowdown is the increasing rate of domain deletions. While some of this churn may be attributed to domains registered during the COVID-19 pandemic being let go, other factors are likely at play. Rising renewal prices, changing usage patterns, and the impact of AI-driven search behaviour are also contributing to the decline. As businesses and individuals reassess their online presence, many are finding it harder to justify the cost of maintaining domains that no longer serve a clear purpose.
2. Rising Renewal Prices and Declining New Registration Costs – Since late 2022, renewal prices for European ccTLDs have increased by approximately 18%, adding around €2.50 to the cost of maintaining a domain. In contrast, the average price to register a new domain has decreased by 14%, or about €1.50. This divergence creates a challenging dynamic: while it’s cheaper to acquire new domains, the cost of retaining them is rising. For domain owners, this means a higher financial burden to maintain unused or underutilized domains, which could lead to further deletions. The combination of economic pressures and changing user behaviour is reshaping the market.
3. Usage Patterns: The Importance of High-Content Domains – Not all domains are created equal when it comes to renewal rates. According to CENTR’s 2024 renewal study, domains hosting “high-content” websites renew at rates 15% higher than those with low or no content. However, high-content domains often represent less than half of the total zonefile in many ccTLDs. This disparity highlights a critical issue: a significant portion of registered domains may not be actively contributing to the internet ecosystem, making them more vulnerable to deletion as renewal costs rise. High-content domains are far more likely to be visible and valuable to internet users. Every live, well-functioning website under a ccTLD acts as free advertising for the registry, reinforcing the ccTLD’s brand and demonstrating its relevance. This creates a virtuous cycle: the more high-quality domains a ccTLD has, the stronger its reputation becomes, attracting even more meaningful registrations.
4. AI-Driven Changes in Search Behaviour – The rise of AI tools like ChatGPT, Deepseek and Google Bard is transforming how users access information online. These tools increasingly provide direct answers to queries, bypassing traditional search engines and reducing the need for users to visit websites. This shift has profound implications for domain owners:
   • Declining Ad Revenue: Domains reliant on casual traffic for ad revenue may see their value diminish as users rely more on AI-generated answers.
   • Reduced Speculative Registrations: Businesses may scale back on defensive or speculative domain registrations, focusing instead on domains that are critical to their branding or direct conversion strategies.

   The changing search landscape is likely to accelerate the cleanup of low-quality domains, as those without meaningful content or purpose become harder to justify economically.

5. The Overload of gTLDs and Reduced Defensive Registrations – Another factor influencing the domain market is the sheer number of generic top-level domains (gTLDs) available today, with more on the way. This proliferation has created a sort of overload for businesses, making it increasingly impractical to defensively register their brand across every possible TLD. In the past, businesses might have felt compelled to secure their brand name across a handful of key ccTLDs and gTLDs. However, with hundreds of gTLDs now available—and more being introduced—the importance of defensive registrations is diminishing. Companies are likely to focus only on the most critical TLDs for their branding and operations, reducing the volume of defensive registrations overall.

Conclusion: A Crossroads for European ccTLDs

The European ccTLD market is at a pivotal moment. Several intersecting trends point to a likely decline in domain volumes over the coming years:

• Cleanup of Low-Quality Domains: As AI tools change how users access information, domains with low or no content may no longer justify their renewal costs, leading to a reduction in inactive or minimally used domains.
• Shift from Mass Registrations: Speculative strategies, where large numbers of domains are registered with little intent for meaningful use, may give way to a focus on fewer, high-quality domains with clear use cases.
• Economic Pressures: Rising renewal prices and declining new registration costs create additional pressure, particularly for domains without active use or significant value.
• Impact on Perceived Value: AI-driven changes in search behaviour are likely to reduce the visibility and value of domains dependent on casual traffic or ad revenue, pushing businesses to prioritize domains tied directly to their branding or conversion strategies.
• Overload of gTLDs: The growing number of gTLDs is making it impractical for businesses to defensively register their brand across every possible TLD, further reducing the volume of speculative registrations.

Conclusion: A Path Forward for European ccTLDs

The storm may be brewing, but European ccTLDs, with the support of CENTR, are well-positioned to weather the challenges ahead. While registries may not have direct control over how domains are used, they can indirectly influence the quality of their namespace through policy choices and partnerships with registrars. By encouraging meaningful domain usage, such as promoting high-content websites and implementing policies that discourage speculative or low-quality registrations, European ccTLDs can foster a healthier, more valuable domain ecosystem.

For mature TLDs, achieving high growth may no longer be feasible, but a focus on sustainable growth, rooted in quality over quantity, is both achievable and essential. By aligning their strategies with natural economic indicators and prioritizing domains that deliver real value, European ccTLDs can build a resilient and future-proof namespace. Coupled with their unique local strengths and CENTR’s data-driven insights, European ccTLDs can remain relevant and resilient in an increasingly AI-driven world.