In a 2024 end-of-year memo, Gary Bolton of the Fiber Broadband Association said that FBA had partnered with the consulting firm Cartesian to look at the pros and cons of Starlink in the U.S. FBA says that report shows that Starlink currently has 1.4 million customers in the U.S., and with the current satellite constellation has the capacity to serve 1.7 million customers.

FBA is a pro-fiber trade association, and as such, it probably takes the most pessimistic look at satellite capacity. The short summary I’ve seen of the Cartesian report says that satellite broadband has some natural limitations on capacity. The implied conclusion of the report is that Starlink can’t serve everybody in rural America.

Starlink has never claimed that ability or goal. However, since there are those advocating that most of the United States’ $42 billion Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) grant award should go to satellite broadband, it’s fair to assess Starlink’s capacity.

Starlink currently has 6,957 working broadband satellites with the stated goal is to grow to 30,000 satellites. That would be a 430% increase, and if the FBA claimed limit of 1.7 million U.S. customers is right, that implies a future capacity of more than 7 million U.S. customers when the constellation is completed—which could be even higher if new satellites have more capacity than older ones.

One of the more important FBA claim is that Starlink has a limitation on the number of people that can be served in any geographic area. That seems to be true today as evidenced by reports that Starlink has quietly implemented waiting lists for service in some parts of the country, presumably due to local capacity.

Just as with any ISP, Starlink also has potential limitations due to backhaul. Starlink currently shows 64 working ground stations, with plans underway to complete 99. A ground station is where broadband traffic passes back and forth between satellites and the terrestrial Internet. Starlink can obviously build more ground stations in the future as needed.

Perhaps the biggest constraint on Starlink is getting the needed spectrum to communicate between satellites and ground stations. Roger Entner of Recon Analytics was quoted recently as saying that Starlink doesn’t have enough spectrum today and new spectrum doesn’t seem to be likely over the next several years. Anybody who follows filings at the FCC has seen numerous filings made by Starlink and cellular companies over the last five years arguing about the allocation of spectrum. A lot of the spectrum that Starlink needs is also currently being used by the military and other parts of the government. It seems likely that Starlink will eventually get the spectrum it needs, but spectrum fights have never been resolved quickly, and this will be a slow struggle.

I have to agree with FBA that Starlink isn’t prepared to handle everybody in rural America today—something I’m sure Starlink would acknowledge. The question that FBA is raising is if satellite capacity can grow quickly enough to meet increasing demands from BEAD plus normal growth. The BEAD program gives ISPs four years to implement BEAD awards. Starlink’s first satellite launch was in May 2019. Who knows what the company can do in four more years?