At 4:04 am on February 26 Mykhailo Fedorov, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, requested Starlink service from Elon Musk, and at 2:45 pm on the 26th, Elon Musk tweeted “Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route.” On February 28 at 12:29 pm, Fedorov posted a photo of a truckload of terminals. (Kyiv is 10 hours ahead of California) and an engineer, Oleg Kutkov, posted the first tweet from Ukraine, showing a download speed of 136.76 Mb/s and an upload speed of 23.93 Mb/s. (Kutkov was among the “people embodying the spirit of Ukraine,” chosen by Time Magazine as Person of the Year for 2022).

On March 19^th there were 5,000 terminals in Ukraine and it was clear that Starlink would play an unprecedented, critical role in the war. President Zelenskyy was using social media and teleconferencing in his roles as Commander in Chief of the armed forces, a global diplomat, and a leader of the Ukrainian people. Starlink was being used to compensate for Russian destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure by civilians and on the battlefield, often in conjunction with drones. Starlink has also enabled important civilian volunteer contributions to the war effort, reminiscent of the working women and the victory gardens during World War 2 in the US.

Starlink’s value is now well established. Kutkov estimates that there are over 170,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine, which is constantly increasing. For example:

• The armed forces have around 100,000 terminals provided by various ministries.
• It is common for soldiers to purchase their own terminals. (One retailer has sold almost 2,000 terminals to soldiers so far this year).
• There are thousands of terminals on drone aircraft and boats built by local companies. (One local vendor bought 10,000 terminals for drones).
• Charity foundations like Serhiy Prytula contribute terminals. (The retail price of a roaming terminal in Ukraine is $613).
• Private donors (including Kutkov) contribute drones and terminals.
• One service center reported that 90% of the military terminals coming for repairs are privately owned.

Musk’s Grok AI chatbot estimates Starlink’s revenue for Ukraine support is “likely in the ballpark of $150-250 million per year as of now”, a relatively unimportant amount, and about $50 million of that is paid by Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, has expressed a willingness to seek alternatives to Starlink if necessary and was invaded by Hitler 1939.

Because of recent statements and actions by Donald Trump and Elon Musk, Ukraine and its allies became concerned that Starlink service might possibly be cut off.

As enumerated in this timeline, Trump has upended the US approach to Ukraine and treated Moscow more as an ally since he became President, culminating in his recent suspension of military aid to and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after he and Vice President Vance berated Zelenskyy in a televised meeting, overstating the amount of US support, falsely claiming that Ukraine had not thanked the US for its support and insisting on a “deal” with no security guarantee.

(Recall that in September 1938, English, French, and Italian leaders signed the Munich Agreement, giving Hitler control of Czechoslovakia in exchange for his promise not to take more land in Europe, and Ukrainians are dying in this war).

Elon Musk has also urged Ukraine to accept peace without a security guarantee to stop the bloodshed. His statement that without Starlink the entire front line would collapse caused concern that he might cut Starlink service off.

Thankfully, Musk has since clarified his position, stating:

“To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals. Without Starlink, the Ukrainian lines would collapse, as the Russians can jam all other communications! We would never do such a thing or use it as a bargaining chip.”

Taking Musk at his word, Starlink service will remain available.