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RIR Gainers and Leakers: How Policy Choices Shape the Future of the IPv4 Ecosystem

The Regional Internet Registries (RIRs) were designed to manage Internet number resources fairly, regionally, and through community consensus. Yet transfer statistics tell a different story: some registries are becoming net gainers of IPv4 addresses, while others are steadily leaking resources into the global market.

This imbalance is not just a matter of accounting. It reveals how policy choices, fee structures, and community dynamics shape the incentives driving IPv4 transfers. The sustainability of the RIR system may depend on recognizing—and adapting to—these emerging realities.

RIPE as the Global Liquidity Hub

Over the past three years, RIPE NCC has consistently gained millions of IPv4 addresses while ARIN, APNIC, and more recently LACNIC, have leaked supply. Several factors explain RIPE’s unique position:

  • Flat membership fee (€1,800 annually), regardless of holdings. This makes it cheap for large holders to consolidate.
  • No needs-based justification for transfers, speeding up acquisitions.
  • Predictable 24-month lock rules, easy to navigate for both buyers and sellers.
  • Inter-RIR transfer support, enabling global inflows.
  • Tolerant leasing posture, provided registry records remain accurate.

The result is that RIPE has become the global center of IPv4 liquidity. Hyperscalers, notably Microsoft, have favored RIPE for large-scale acquisitions because it combines speed, low costs, and legal clarity. Leasing markets also thrive, creating secondary revenue streams for holders.

In contrast, ARIN remains burdened by needs-based justification and size-based fees that escalate sharply with larger blocks. APNIC has imposed restrictions on its “final /8” pool and high membership costs, discouraging speculative holdings.

LACNIC’s 2025 Flip: A Warning Sign

For years, LACNIC maintained neutrality in address transfers. But in 2025, it became a net leaker, losing more than three million IPv4 addresses—the steepest single-year outflow on record.

The reason is clear: LACNIC’s strict prohibition on leasing and size-based fee model made surplus addresses liabilities rather than assets. Large members facing growing costs and limited monetization options chose to exit, moving resources to more flexible regions like RIPE.

This episode underscores a key lesson: rigid policy can backfire, triggering the very instability it aims to prevent.

AFRINIC: The Isolated Market

AFRINIC is the only registry that does not support inter-RIR transfers, cutting itself off from the global IPv4 economy. Combined with years of governance crises, lawsuits, and board suspensions, the region has become effectively irrelevant for large-scale acquisitions.

Even with moderate fees, AFRINIC is viewed as a dead end. Resources there are considered stranded assets—unattractive to hyperscalers, telcos, or enterprises. The result is a stagnant, inward-looking market with little hope of revival without major reform.

Fee Models: Incentives in Disguise

The way RIRs charge for membership is more than accounting—it directly shapes market behavior.

  • Flat-fee model (RIPE NCC): Equal cost for small and large holders. This penalizes small networks but creates a paradise for large-scale consolidators.
  • Size-based fees (ARIN, APNIC, LACNIC, AFRINIC): Costs rise sharply with block size. Affordable for small holders, but at scale, fees can reach tens of thousands annually.

This divergence explains why large holders migrate to RIPE while smaller networks in ARIN or APNIC often stay put. In LACNIC, the exponential growth of fees at higher tiers made it one of the most expensive regions for big operators, accelerating the 2025 outflows.

How Policy Shapes Business Strategy

For operators, these differences are not theoretical—they define real-world strategy.

  • Telcos in RIPE vs. ARIN: In RIPE, a telco can acquire and lease large blocks without justification, paying a flat €1,800 fee regardless of size. In ARIN, the same holdings may cost tens of thousands annually, with strict reviews discouraging stockpiling.
  • Hyperscaler acquisitions: Microsoft has actively acquired space in RIPE due to its speed and predictability. Meanwhile, ARIN remains the legacy base for AWS, Google, and Meta, but friction slows new acquisitions.
  • Surplus holders in restrictive regions: In APNIC, high fees and 103/8 restrictions limit leasing options. In LACNIC, leasing is outright prohibited, making surplus addresses “dead capital.”

The net result: RIPE encourages accumulation and leasing, while other RIRs create exit incentives for large holders.

Systemic Risks: Fragility Beneath the Surface

The financial stability of RIRs depends heavily on their revenue models.

  • Flat-fee registries (RIPE): At risk if membership numbers decline.
  • Size-based registries (ARIN, APNIC, LACNIC, AFRINIC): Vulnerable if a handful of large contributors exit.

In ARIN and APNIC, 10—20% attrition among top-tier members could wipe out millions in annual revenue. In LACNIC and AFRINIC, even smaller shocks would be destabilizing given their limited budgets.

Compounding the issue is policy inertia. RIR communities are aging, with few new participants joining policy forums. Without renewal, bold reforms are unlikely. Governance disputes, as seen in AFRINIC, further erode trust.

The danger is a feedback loop:

  • Outflows and attrition reduce revenue.
  • Registries raise fees or cut services.
  • Members perceive less value and accelerate their exit.

Once this cycle begins, it is difficult to reverse.

Building Sustainable RIRs

To avoid long-term instability, RIRs must evolve beyond their traditional role as custodians of scarce resources. Several steps are essential:

  • Deliver modern tools and automation: Unified APIs, stronger RPKI capabilities, and interoperable registry systems across regions.
  • Standardize compliance and processes: Harmonize KYC, transfer audits, and abuse-contact verification to reduce friction and prevent policy arbitrage.
  • Renew the community: Attract younger operators, cloud providers, and developers through fellowships, hackathons, and open tooling initiatives.
  • Collaborate on open-source registry stacks: Pool resources across RIRs to reduce costs, increase transparency, and accelerate innovation.
  • Reposition as enablers, not just gatekeepers: Provide value-added services, training, and modern infrastructure to keep members engaged.

Conclusion

Transfer statistics show a clear reality: RIPE is the consistent net gainer, while ARIN, APNIC, and now LACNIC leak supply year after year. AFRINIC remains cut off entirely.

These trends are not accidents—they are the predictable outcomes of policy, fee models, and governance choices. If left unchecked, they threaten the financial stability of registries and the balance of the global IPv4 ecosystem.

The path forward is clear. RIRs must modernize their technology, harmonize their compliance processes, and renew their communities. Only then can they remain sustainable and relevant in an internet that demands flexibility, transparency, and trust.

This article is part of a bigger study. Read the full text here.

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By Vincentas Grinius, Co-Founder at IPXO

Vincentas Grinius is a co-founder at IPXO, an all-in-one automated IP address platform offering secure, compliant, and flexible solutions to drive internet sustainability and help businesses scale. Vincentas has a long track record and 10+ years of experience combining today’s technologies and making Heficed the first in the market IPv4 lease and monetization platform. The platform brings RIRs, LIRs, and from small to large enterprises together to share the IPv4 resources and to make the Internet much more sustainable.

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Comments

One-Way Narrative on IPv4 Market Migration and RIR Sustainability John Curran  –  Oct 14, 2025 12:28 PM

Vincentas — thanks for raising these issues; they’re important ones for the RIR community to examine closely. That said, your analysis still overlooks several substantial factors that shape the actual dynamics of the IPv4 ecosystem.

First, migration risk cuts both ways. Tiered pricing models (like ARIN’s) may incentivize some large holders to move to RIPE, but they also offer far lower costs for small and mid-size holders — for example, under $300/year for a /24 — compared to RIPE’s flat €1,800 fee. In a fully portable market, those smaller holders would have just as much reason to migrate away from RIPE, which your analysis doesn’t consider.

Second, “financial weight” isn’t limited to top-tier holders. There are far more organizations in those lower/mid tiers, and their collective contribution matters very significantly to RIR revenue models.

Third, the “downward spiral” scenario is overstated. Most RIRs maintain six months or more of operating reserves precisely to cushion membership or revenue fluctuations, giving years for deliberate adjustments — not months before collapse.

Finally, current market behavior reflects decades of needs-based policies that have limited speculative participation. If those safeguards were removed, you’d likely see very different behavior from new entrants (e.g., financial actors) than the current market suggests.

It’s good to surface these issues, but they need to be discussed with the full set of dynamics on the table, not just one side of the ledger.

Interesting article and discussion Mike Burns  –  Oct 14, 2025 2:01 PM

Good article.
Hi John,
It’s hard to argue with the facts that addresses under RIPE are growing and the other RIRs are losing addresses. But you bring up an interesing point about it being cheaper at ARIN for smaller blocks than it is at RIPE. You would need a lot of /24 holders to make up for a large legacy holder who finds another RIR less threatening or less costly, though.
As you know, needs-based transfers were jettisoned by RIPE a decade ago, meaning anybody who wants to speculate is free to do so, and current lease returns on purchased addresses are unusually attractive due to dramatically lower IPv4 purchase costs.
Finally, we are seeing the new entrants (financial actors) enter the market through investment vehicles (Cogent) even in ARIN, where need-tests persist.
There are indeed many issues to surface, one that I find interesting is how the intersection of the IPv4 market, inter-regional transfers, and no routing police has created the potential for registry shopping/registry competition.
I don’t think the numbers will be significant to any RIR’s finances, but a little competition won’t hurt the consumer.

John Curran  –  Oct 14, 2025 2:46 PM

Thanks, Mike — agreed, it’s a valuable discussion to have.

What I want to push back on is the idea advanced in the blog that policy changes are necessary because “if left unchecked, they threaten the financial stability of registries and the balance of the global IPv4 ecosystem.” That framing sounds urgent, but it doesn’t hold up under more than a superficial analysis.

If the registry system were to shift to a far more liquid and portable environment, the effects wouldn’t be one-sided. There are more than ten thousand RIPE customers currently paying the flat €1,800 annual fee who would see real savings from migrating in the other direction. The point is that we can’t assume “reducing friction” automatically solves one problem without potentially creating others — and without fully considering the impacts in both directions.

Furthermore, the RIRs aren’t fragile. Most maintain substantial reserves, diversified revenue sources, and multi-year adaptability. A revenue shortfall doesn’t lead to collapse — it leads to budget planning. And the supposed “balance of the ecosystem” is a vague notion unless we’re talking about actual operational coordination, which isn’t under threat.

If some resource holders want policy changes — to allow more leasing, remove needs-based justification, or encourage portability — they should absolutely make their case in the appropriate policy forums.

Open debate is healthy. But we should resist narratives that oversimplify or exaggerate risks to what is, in fact, a rather robust RIR ecosystem — and instead evaluate proposed policy changes on their merits, not out of manufactured claims that the IPv4 system is on the brink of collapse.

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